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Sunday, June 6, 2010

Nikki Haley Still Strongly Favored In Poll

From Public Policy Polling Raleigh, N.C.

Nikki Haley For Governor

Public Policy Polling

Nikki Haley hasn’t suffered any damage whatsoever after accusations of multiple extramarital affairs and is headed for an easy first place finish in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Governor of South Carolina.

Haley has a 20 point lead, getting 43% of the vote. Gresham Barrett looks like the favorite for the second runoff spot. He’s at 23%, followed by Henry McMaster at 16%, and Andre Bauer at 12%.

Raleigh, N.C. – Nikki Haley had a 20 point lead in her bid for the Republican Gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina two weeks ago before allegations of an extramarital affair surfaced. Only 13% of likely primary voters believe the charges that have been lobbed against her and she continues to hold that 20 point lead heading into the final couple days of the campaign.

A first place finish for Haley Tuesday appears to be a near certainty. She’s at 43% to 23% for Gresham Barrett, 16% for Henry McMaster, and 12% for Andre Bauer. There’s probably a better chance of her avoiding a runoff on Tuesday than not finishing first unless something crazy happens to shake up the race in the final 24 hours. 54% of primary voters flatly do not believe the rumors about Haley. 33% aren’t sure and only 13% come right out and say they think they’re true. The numbers do suggest serious consequences for Haley if they are proven though- 42% of voters think she should drop out of the race in that scenario.

Haley’s favorability was a net +34 on our poll two weeks ago and it now stands at a net +35 (58/23). The person who’s really had a good couple of weeks is Gresham Barrett. His favorability has improved from +10 to +25 (44/19) and he’s emerged as the clear frontrunner for the second runoff spot, with his support going from 16% to 23%.

In the 4th Congressional District six term Congressman Bob Inglis looks to be headed to a runoff with challenger Trey Gowdy, who leads the incumbent 37-33. “Nikki Haley’s in good shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Her campaign has deflected the allegations against her well and so far she hasn’t suffered any political damage in the wake of them.”

PPP did not survey the Democratic primary for Governor on this poll. PPP surveyed 998 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters including 300 in the 4th Congressional District on June 5th and 6th. The margin of error on the overall sample is +/-3.1% and for the 4th district subsample is +/-5.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Haley's support is pretty universal. She gets 43% with both moderates and conservatives, 45% in the Low Country, 44% in the Midlands, and 40% in the Upstate. At this point the chances of her winning an outright majority and avoiding a runoff appear to be better than the ones of her not finishing first.

(Vote the good ole boys republican or democrate out of office if they are doing business as usual. Vote all liberals and moderates out just because they are moderates and liberals. Vote conservatives in if they are the real deal and not RINO's.) Story Reports

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