There is strong internal fear that there are no more votes left for Obama to pick up

This is very funny and I believe very possible if Barack Hussein Obama is elected.
.....................................................................................
.....................................................................................
.....................................................................................
.....................................................................................

The poster known as Sarah P, who Rush quoted yesterday 10/30/08, posted another comment at HillBuzz last night.

I was going to write a long response to validate and defend myself, but I just don’t feel that its necessary. I am sorry some feel offended by my post. I have no shame or guilt, we all have careers but don’t necessarily agree with the boss. My duties are so benign and clerical that I don’t have a hand in what I feel is a “game”. The “game” as I see it is much like a play on vanity, its a ruffle up your feathers to appear larger kind of game. The campaign is now nearing 1 billion dollars, a 1 billion dollar campaign. Can you imagine, if 1 little girl came forth and tried to take on that kind of establishment. I am not the person for that, and its not possible for me to do without implosion. I am not sure I can offer much up that would take notice in the MSM and get reported. My story would not make news, its not newsworthy. Its not illegal, the ideas I am suggesting. Its smoke and mirrors, sure. Its playing with emotions, absolutely. But, to the masses and to the pundits it would be viewed as “campaigning” and you would be told that it was just Obama being the “better” campaigner.

The truth is simple. The idea is to appear as a winner. To deflate your opponent. To overwhelm your opponent. To confuse your opponent. And to own the airwaves. There was a mass coordination on foreigners to visit online sites and vote to declare who won in the debates. Did you notice that John Mccain seemed to lose and lose badly every time. Where did all those voters come from?

I could explain more, but my point wasn’t to dissect and draw this into a debate. My point was simple, never in my wildest dreams would I have ever considered myself a person who would vote for a “repug” as some like to call them. I have been involved in two elections and voted twice now. Straight democrat. I now see the truth, and the truth is to vote for what is best for our country. Vote not on emotion and don’t lose yourself to a game of mirrors. This election is down to a candidate that wants to win for his own desires and down to a candidate that wants to win for the country. Don’t allow yourself to be told what is right by anyone, review the facts, take a long good look at the candidate and decide what you believe is the right choice for us, for everyone in the united states. Your vote is your vote. Don’t allow a massive machine to feed you the answer.

I wrote the initial post to tell everyone to remain calm, stay firm in your convictions, vote with your heart don’t let the news and polls keep you and your will down. The news channels, the advertisements, the polls, are not the truth. They are not the truth. The truth is inside the people. Don’t be discouraged, and don’t give up.

And please, just ignore any oppositional voice on any forum, youtube, etc. Ask yourself one question, would there really be this much activity and opposition all on its own? Or were they sent, was this their mission? What seems more plausible?

How about the polls, how were the skewed? Take a look at the internals, always. But, above that think about something. How wold a polling company get paid? How would this be a viable business just on its own? They get paid by networks, ever notice how every two hours there is a pollster being interviewed and talking about his polls. Ever notice, the polls one day will have Barack Obama leading by 12, then the next day leading by 5, then the next day up to 8. How is that possible? Think about just one poll, that has Barack up 13 points, how badly would that destroy the average? Don’t you think it would be pretty easy to put together a few Pollsters to stick a few high polls up to throw off the average? This then makes other pollsters question their techniques, then they question the electorate and devise some kind of formula. They see their numbers as say Barack Obama up by 3, but they see another poll with Barack Obama up 13. They then formulate that there is problem, maybe some truth in the 13 poll, but that its overly exaggerated and that their poll is maybe too conservative so they then take their 3 and bump it up to say a 5-6. Its to split the difference, and the thought is that John Mccain doesn’t have the enthusiasm that Barack Obama does, so they give a weight adjustment that favors the democrat.

Lets just keep this simple, the race is 2-3 points in favor of Barack Obama. This is the internal truth. However, there is strong internal fear that there is no more votes left for him to pick up. Currently we see him at only 46% of the vote. Maybe 48% maximum.

If that wasn’t the truth, if all the polls were correct. Then why would there be a need for a 30 minute spot on all the networks. The goal from now and until next tuesday is to pick up 2 more percentage points. That is the goal. That is what the campaign is working on right now. That is the focus.

All the polls will all end up being around 3 point difference come monday. There will be a few rogue polls who will stick to their inflated numbers to help as that is their job, to help. but most will show it a 3 point race come monday.

The winner will be based on turnout, thats the secret, thats why you have seen so much opposition.”

October 31, 2008

....................................................................................
Internals = everything that's not the headline number on a poll. And 'crosstabs' usually refers to breakdowns of questions by race, gender, age, party ID -- often with comparative breakdowns from previous polls.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional or racial grouping. In other words it ain't set in stone!

The best way to see this at work is to look at the full reporting of a poll like the example [PDF] below, which will usually open with a summary of the headline numbers, then go through the questions that were asked and offer a demographic breakdown.


This is an example of the 'internals" of a poll

PDF OF POLLING DATA REVEALS THE DEAILS OF A POLL

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Posted by hillbuzz Halloween Report 10/31/08

Last night here in Chicago’s Boystown, we counted 22 separate Sarah Palin/John McCain costumes out - always generating strong crowd interest, cheering, and applause. One of the costume sets was a guy dressed as Alaska (outline of state) matched up with another guy dressed as a house (I can see Alaska from my house). There was one group of people who dressed as Palin and her secret service entourage. Another of Palin with her husband Todd, and plenty of Palin’s by themselves in bright red suits. The best of the night was a man dressed as McCain and another as Palin, complete with a Cindy and Todd and a Bullwinkle moose.

Not a single person dressed as Obama and Biden.

Halloween costumes are a reflection of the zeitgeist in that moment — Palin and McCain were the costumes on people’s minds, because they are who are in the pop culture’s imagination right now.

The ticket that is best represented in Halloween costumes in an election year is the ticket that has won the White House since people first started paying attention to this anecdotal barometer.

If that’s true, then there’s a chance this election could not even be close and McCain/Palin could absolutely TROUNCE the Democrats. We’ve never seen that many representations of a Republican ticket out at Halloween. Never.

People are fascinated by Palin — hence the sustained effort to destroy her.

But, people today are talking about all the Palins they say last night out for Halloween. Tomorrow, they’ll still be talking about it, when they are at home with family and people make up their minds who to vote for. That’s what “undecideds” will truly do tomorrow — they decide the Sunday before the election.

And they sure as heck aren’t talking about Obama or his TV special today.


PDF OF POLLING DATA REVEALS THE DEAILS OF A POLL

I can only hope this is not a trick and the treat will be Obama "the one, the empty suit, the socialist will loose"