Friday, August 11, 2017
Keep the force ready and don't get the herd spooked.
The herd is kim jong-un and his generals.
General Thurman worried that the war of words was fueling tensions and adding to the risk of miscalculation.
“We are playing right into Kim Jong-un’s hands,” General Thurman said. “That is what he wants. He wants to be on the world scene.”
“I really would want to tamp down this rhetoric, maintain armistice conditions, keep the force ready and,” he said, “not get the herd spooked.”
New York Times 8/20/2017
Wrestling With North Korea, Trump Finds Perilous Options
WASHINGTON — North Korea’s threat on Thursday to test-fire ballistic missiles soon near the American territory of Guam deepened the challenge confronting the Trump administration: how to defang Pyongyang’s missile programs without risking all-out war.
President Trump has made clear that his goal is to deny North Korea the capability to field a long-range nuclear-tipped missile that could strike the United States.
Even a limited strike against a North Korean missile on its launching pad or the shooting down of a missile in midair would pose risks that the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, might retaliate, setting off a spiral of escalation that could plunge the Korean Peninsula into war.
“In the event of a first strike against Kim, even a non-nuclear option, it is highly likely that Kim would retaliate at least conventionally against South Korea,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star admiral who is now dean of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “This almost certainly would create an upward spiral of violence which would be extremely difficult to manage or to mitigate.”
A major consideration would be whether and when to evacuate American and other allied civilians, which is no small feat as Seoul, a city of about 10 million, is within range of North Korea’s rockets and artillery and the North Korean military is also armed with chemical and biological weapons.
“With all this talk, what I worry about is a serious miscalculation,” said James D. Thurman, a retired Army general who served as the top United States commander in South Korea from 2011 to 2013. “Before we start talking about all these military options, we have to decide what are we going to do with the U.S. citizens over there.”
He estimated that at least a quarter-million Americans would have to be moved.
If the United States was prepared to go beyond a limited strike, it could conduct a surprise attack on North Korea’s missile garrison and weapon storage areas, using American aircraft stationed in Guam, in Japan and on aircraft carriers as well as strategic bombers that would be refueled in flight.
American officials, however, do not have high confidence that the military could find and destroy North Korea’s entire arsenal of long-range missiles and nuclear warheads. It would be up to American missile defenses to knock out any that survived and that North Korea might use to attack the United States or its allies.
The United States could try a similar approach: attacking North Korea’s missiles while warning Mr. Kim that his government would be the next target if he dared to strike back. But few analysts are confident he would be restrained.
Those urging firmer action assert that a military buildup in and around South Korea could give economic sanctions and diplomacy more time to work while providing American negotiators with more leverage.
Mr. Graham asserted that diplomatic efforts would fail unless the United States made clear that North Korea’s deployment of an intercontinental missile would cross a “red line” and that military options were available if the talks faltered.
The herd is kim jong-un and his generals.
James D. Thurman, a retired Army general who served as the top United States commander in South Korea from 2011 to 2013 is worried about stampeding the kim jon-un herd.
I think he is a rational thinker.
Diplomatic efforts have not worked in th US favor, clinton and obama made sure of that.
Kim jon-un is now in a position to talk turkey to the US and the world.
If kim jong-un lauches a missle toward Guam or the US this will stampede the US herd possibly.
It could push President Trump to do what is is charged to do which is defend the US.
Guam is a US territory with US bases and will be protected just like the US.
The potential fire storm I see is kim jon-un making a real bad move with his military and shooting a missile toward Guam.
Even if it was a test I think President Trump would be compelled to move against kim jong-un.
Lets all pray that President Trump makes the right decisions.
In the 1961 cuban missle crisis all the US generals wanted to nuke cuba which would have resulted in ww3 and the mutual destruction of the US and Russia.
The US generals gave Kennedy stupid bad advice.
Kennedy did not take their advice and because of this the cuban crisis did not result in the destruction of the US and Russia etc.
I am sure President Trump is getting much advice and can only hope its better advice than was given by the generals in 1961.
This is again why I say to pray for President Trump.
At least one general has some good advice this time, General James D. Thurman.
President Trump should take his advice.